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Executive Summary
This chapter explores future global climate changes across various time horizons from near-term 2021-2040, mid-term 2041-2060, and long-term scenarios up to the year 2300, comparing these projections agnst recent past data 1995-2014 and a pre-industrial approximation 1850-1900.
Temperature, precipitation patterns, large-scale circulation dynamics, cryosphere impacts, oceanic changes, carbon dioxide levels, sea level rise, and global climate variability indices are among the physical indicators assessed. This chapter consolidates knowledge on projected climate changes from near-term to long-term perspectives.
The is outlined in section 4.2, emphasizing model evaluations, ensemble methodologies, scenario selection, sources of near-term information, pattern scaling techniques, quantification of uncertnties, and methods for displaying model agreement and spread.
Projected changes in global climate indices are detled across the atmospheric realm global surface r temperature, cryospheric and oceanic realms Arctic sea ice area, global mean sea level, and biospheric components. Indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO, Southern Annular Mode SAM, El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation ENSO are analyzed.
The implications of climate policy on these projections are explored in 4.6, focusing on how different mitigation strategies affect global warming patterns, overshooting scenarios, and path-depency in the trajectory towards a stable climate.
Beyond 2100, long-term commitments to sea level rise from thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting processes are discussed alongside projected changes for global precipitation and Arctic sea ice conditions.
Acknowledgements highlight gratitude to the WGI Bureau and Technical Support Unit for their support, including specific individuals who contributed significantly. Contributions from chapter scientists and reviewers were also recognized.
Frequently Asked Questions provide answers to key inquiries about climate change impacts over the next two decades, how quickly reductions in carbon emissions could lead to significant effects, and spatial patterns of climate change at a given level of global warming.
The document concludes with a list of references for further reading and additional materials like fact sheets that offer concise summaries of chapter findings.
This article is reproduced from: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-4/
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Future Global Climate Projections 2021 2300 Near Term to Long Term Climate Changes Temperature and Precipitation Patterns Forecast Arctic Sea Ice Area Reduction Trends Southern Annular Mode Impact Analysis Carbon Dioxide Levels in the Atmosphere