Revolutionizing Precipitation Forecasting: The NOAA's Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy

Strategy for the Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge PPGC

Introduction:

Precipitation forecasts are essential to individuals, businesses, and decision-makers across every sector in the United States. Accurate precipitation predictions can help mitigate impacts associated with extreme events such as significant financial losses due to natural disasters. The U.S. Congress and Office of Science and Technology Policy have recognized the need for improved precipitation prediction capabilities through mandates like the 2017 Weather Act and the Earth System Predictability priority. NOAA has responded by launching the Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge PPGC Initiative to enhance research efforts over the next decade.

Strategic Goal:

The overarching goal of the PPGC strategy is to develop and implement a fully coupled Earth system prediction model that provides more accurate, reliable, and timely precipitation forecasts across various timeframes-from short-term weather predictions to longer-term subseasonal-to-seasonal S2S and seasonal-to-decadal S2D scenarios.

Critical Questions:

To address the PPGC effectively, we must tackle seven pivotal questions:

1. Identifying major systematic errors in current precipitation prediction systems and their underlying causes.

2. Determining which physical processes most significantly impact model biases related to precipitation forecasts.

3. Prioritizing and correcting key systematic errors for improvement.

4. Learning from past successes and lessons from previous challenges.

5. Recognizing persisting knowledge gaps surrounding precipitation dynamics and forecasting.

6. Leveraging new capabilities and opportunities to minimize major errors and enhance prediction accuracy.

7. Organizing federal, academic, private sector, and international research efforts through collaborative strategies.

Impact:

NOAA's PPGC strategy :

1. Enhance process understanding across all readiness levels research, operations, services.

2. Dramatically reduce systematic errors in NOAA global.

3. Boost operational precipitation prediction skills significantly.

4. Provide effective decision-support tools and services based on improved forecast accuracy.

Next Steps for the Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge:

This strategy outlines a roadmap for addressing critical research questions over the next five years, ensuring that NOAA's efforts are well-aligned across all timescales from weather forecasts to longer-term predictions.

To delve deeper into each of the six strategic objectives and supporting actions in this PPGC Initiative, we encourage you to read through the full strategy document provided.

In , the Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge is a comprehensive plan designed to revolutionize precipitation prediction capabilities within NOAA and beyond, thereby contributing to more informed decision-making across diverse sectors.

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