NOAA's Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge: Enhancing Accuracy through Integrated Earth System Modeling

Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy: Enhancing Forecast Accuracy and Reliability

Introduction:

Precipitation prediction is indispensable for every individual and business across the United States, influencing decisions at various temporal scales, ranging from hourly forecasts to seasonal-to-decadal predictions. Accurate precipitation forecasting is crucial in mitigating disaster impacts associated with extreme events, which are often linked to precipitation patternsboth too much or too little. Despite recent advancements, challenges persist in capturing precipitation accurately within global and regional climate.

Acknowledging these challenges, NOAA has launched the Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge PPGC Initiative to align its research efforts for future improvements over a decade from 2020 to 2030.

Strategic Goal:

The overarching goal is to enhance precipitation prediction across all timescales - weather through subseasonal-to-seasonal S2S, and seasonal-to-decadal S2D - by developing and applying a fully integrated Earth system model.

Critical Questions for PPGC:

1. Identifying the major systematic errors in currentand understanding their origins.

2. Determining which physical processes significantly impact precipitation biases within forecast.

3. Prioritizing and addressing key areas for error reduction based on systematic issues.

4. Learning from past successes while avoiding previous mistakes.

5. Pinpointing persistent knowledge gaps regarding precipitation dynamics and prediction challenges.

6. Identifying innovative capabilities that can mitigate major errors in current precipitation forecasting systems.

Impact:

The strategy drive improvements across all readiness levels research, operational services, resulting in:

Enhanced understanding of physical processes,

Significant reduction of systematic errors within NOAA's global,

Improved operational forecast skill for precipitation events,

Effective dissemination of decision-support tools based on improved prediction reliability.

Each year, will detl the progress made towards each strategic objective and supporting actions outlined over the next five-year period.

Part I: Understanding Major Systematic Errors:

This section will delve into analyzing current modeling errors and their underlying causes, providing insights to prioritize areas for improvement in precipitation forecasting systems. It seeks to integrate findings from past studies, operational experiences, and innovative research eavors.

Part II: Investigating Influential Physical Processes:

We will explore the physical processes that significantly impact forecast biases concerning precipitation amounts across different temporal scales. This investigation ms at enhancing model accuracy by understanding how these processes interact with atmospheric conditions, influencing precipitation patterns and intensity.

Part III: Prioritizing Error Fixing Strategies:

Based on the findings from Parts I II, this section outlines actionable strategies to address identified errors in precipitation prediction systems. It focuses on research gaps, model improvements, data assimilation techniques, and computational enhancements that collectively m at reducing systematic biases.

Part IV: Lessons Learned and Knowledge Gaps:

This part will synthesize lessons from past successes and flures in precipitation prediction, as well as highlight remning knowledge gaps to be addressed through collaborative efforts across the federal government, academia, private research sectors, and international partners.

Part V: New Capabilities for Improved Forecasting:

We will explore cutting-edge technologies, methodologies, and theoretical advancements that could transform current precipitation forecasting capabilities. This includes exploring novel approaches in atmospheric physics, data assimilation techniques, cloud modeling, and ensemble prediction systems.

Part VI: Organizational Strategy:

This section discusses the collaborative efforts required among federal agencies, academic institutions, private research organizations, and international partners to execute the PPGC strategy effectively. It outlines communication strategies, resource allocation, and governance mechanisms for ensuring seamless integration of research activities across different sectors and countries.

:

The Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy is a comprehensive framework med at addressing critical issues in precipitation forecasting over the next decade. By focusing on understanding errors, prioritizing improvement areas, leveraging lessons learned, exploring new capabilities, and fostering collaboration among key stakeholders, NOAA significantly enhance its capabilities for providing more accurate, reliable, and timely precipitation forecasts.

For detled updates and progress reports on each strategic objective throughout the years 2020-2030, please refer back to .
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