Enhancing Precipitation Forecasting: A Decadal Strategy for Improved Weather Predictions in the U.S.

Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy 2020-2030

Introduction

In every corner of the United States, from the bustling city streets to the tranquil rural landscapes, precipitation forecasts are indispensable. From predicting a morning's commute to assessing potential disaster impacts like billion-dollar weather events, accurate precipitation information is crucial for individuals and businesses alike. The Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy enhance our ability to predict rnfall in terms of timing, location, quantity, and form rn, snow, sleet, driving significant advancements across various sectors including meteorology, disaster response, agriculture, water management, transportation, insurance, and healthcare.

Challenges in forecasting precipitation, a key component in understanding weather patterns, are widely recognized by policymakers. The 2017 Weather Act and the administration's 2021 Earth System Predictability priority initiative led by the Office of Science and Technology Policy OSTP highlight this need. NOAA's Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Initiative represents a strategic roadmap to address these challenges.

Strategic Goal

The overarching goal is to improve precipitation forecasts across timescales ranging from short-term weather predictions to subseasonal-to-seasonal and seasonal-to-decadal horizons by developing and implementing a fully integrated Earth system prediction model. This initiative targets enhancing forecast accuracy, reliability, and timeliness while reducing systematic errors in NOAA's global.

Core Questions

Seven pivotal questions form the backbone of the PPGC Strategy:

1. Identifying Major Systematic Errors: Understanding where our current forecastingfall short to pinpoint areas needing improvement.

2. Key Processes Impacting Precipitation Prediction: Determining which physical processes contribute most to biases in precipitation forecasts and guiding research efforts accordingly.

3. Prioritizing Error Reduction: Setting priorities for addressing model weaknesses based on their impact on precipitation predictions.

4. Learning from Successes and Mistakes: Drawing lessons from past successes and flures to refine strategies moving forward.

5. Addressing Knowledge Gaps: Recognizing and addressing knowledge gaps in precipitation processes that limit our predictive capabilities.

6. Harnessing New Capabilities: Identifying opportunities for innovation and technological advancements to enhance forecast accuracy.

7. Fostering Collaborative Efforts: Organizing collaborative research efforts across federal, academic, private sectors, both domestically and internationally.

Impact

The strategy ensures a cohesive approach from research to operational services:

• Enhanced Process Understanding: Deepening our knowledge of precipitation dynamics for more accurate modeling.

• Reduced Systematic Errors: Significantly cutting down on errors in globalfor improved prediction reliability.

• Improved Operational Skill: Boosting forecasting capabilities across all timescales and sectors, leading to better preparedness and response to weather events.

To delve deeper into the six strategic objectives outlined over five years, we encourage you to review the full strategy document.

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Objectives

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This document serves as a comprehensive guide for NOAA's research and operational teams ming to tackle the Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge. It outlines a clear path towards delivering more accurate, reliable, and timely precipitation forecasts that will significantly benefit society across various sectors by enhancing our understanding of Earth's complex systems.

For further information or inquiries, please contact the Weather, Water, and Climate Board Executive Secretariat at insert contact information.
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