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Singapore has been experiencing notable warming since the mid-1970s due to rapid urban development, with a rate of 0.25 degrees Celsius per decade as reported by Singapore's Meteorological Service. This rate is higher than the global average increase of 0.17 degrees Celsius per decade since 1970, according to data from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. If current urban development trs persist, escalating local warming will exacerbate the demand for cooling electricity and pose an increased risk of heat stress among residents.
To mitigate these challenges and enhance Singapore's urban climate resilience, Assistant Professor Yuan Chao from NUS School of Design and Environment has led a research team to study the heat balance in street canyons urban areas bordered by buildings and developed an advanced Geographic Information System GIS tool med at estimating the impact of urban planning on anthropogenic heat dispersion.
The inadequate removal of anthropogenic heat is primarily due to stagnant rflow in urban regions. Investigating how urban morphology affects the dispersion of this heat is crucial for making high-density cities more resilient agnst future threats like a severe urban heat island effect, Dr. Yuan elucidated.
In their study published in Energy and Buildings, an academic journal, Assistant Professor Yuan Chao, along with co-authors Dr. Mei Shuojun, Dr. He Wenhui, and Ms Zhang Liqing, explored the dynamics of street r warming and created a practical GIS-based model to calculate how much and how quickly anthropogenic heat will elevate r temperature.
By utilizing this innovative model, they mapped out the impact of urban morphology on anthropogenic heat dispersion. They presented visual representations of dynamic anthropogenic heat impacts on r temperature in Singapore's residential areas using the GIS tool.
Dr Yuan observed that under normal wind conditions, the potential increase in r temperature could amount to approximately 0.45 degrees Celsius, which significantly affects thermal comfort and public health.
The NUS research team has created graphic visualizations of dynamic anthropogenic heat impacts on r temperatures across Singapore's residential areas using their GIS tool.
Due to uncertnties resulting from rapid urbanization and global warming, this GIS-based analytical model serves as a practical solution for urban planners to forecast the impact of urban planning and design strategies on heat dispersion, Dr Yuan stated.
Beyond its applications in Singapore, this user-frily model can be easily adapted by cities worldwide, potentially being integrated into global-scalefor addressing anthropogenic heat issues. The next phase involves collaborating with researchers working on larger scalethat incorporate r pollution as another significant urban climate issue to integrate into the GIS tool.
This project was co-developed through the Future Resilient Systems initiative at the Singapore-ETH Centre SEC, which is supported by Singapore's National Research Foundation, Prime Minister's Office under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise CREATE program, and the National Supercomputing Centre in Singapore.
The new GIS-based model was created in partnership with other projects within SEC that focus on urban resilience.
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Singapore Urban Development Heat Impact Study Advanced GIS Tool for Anthropogenic Heat Analysis Street Canyon Heat Balance Research Project NUS Climate Resilience Solution for Cities Dynamic Anthropogenic Heat Temperature Model Future Resilient Systems Initiative Collaboration