«

Forecasting the Weather: A Comprehensive Guide Through Observation, Data Analysis, and Prediction Models

Read: 885


Weather Forecasting Process

A weather forecast is an informed prediction of future atmospheric conditions, which primarily revolves around variables like cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and direction, temperature, and humidity. The accuracy of such forecasts deps largely on understanding the current state of the atmosphere over a wide geographic area.

Making a Weather Forecast

Weather forecasting involves analyzing existing meteorological data to predict future weather patterns. includes systematic observations, data collection, analysis, and forecast formulation. Let's delve deeper into each step:

1st Step: Observation

A comprehensive system is in place for gathering atmospheric information worldwide. This includes land-based stations using standard instruments like barometers, wind vanes, anemometers, thermometers, hygrometers, and rn gauges to measure r pressure, wind speeds, temperatures, humidity, cloud conditions, precipitation levels, and visibility.

2nd Step: Data Collection and Transmission

Weather data from various sources are consolidated into coded forms. These observations are transmitted using radio telephones, teletype s, facsimile s, or telephones. Weather satellite images are sent to ground receiving stations, while radar data is relayed through local communication networks.

3rd Step: Plotting of Weather Data

Once the coded messages reach designated centers, they are decoded and plotted on maps. Surface observations are marked on mean sea level charts that are updated four times dly. Radiosonde wind observations and theodolite measurements for atmospheric levels are charted on upper r charts twice a day.

4th Step: Analysis of Data

Weather maps undergo systematic analysis to identify patterns. Surface mean sea level charts use isobaric analysis, connecting points of equal pressure with lines that show wind direction based on gradient changes in pressure. Upper r charts employ streamline analysis for winds using theodolite or rcraft data.

Numerical Weather Prediction Model: Computer- maps are analyzed manually to pinpoint weather systems like high and low-pressure areas, cyclones, cold fronts, warm fronts, and other significant features. The computer model's output includes forecasts at different time intervals based on current conditions.

5th Step: Forecast Formulation

After analyzing all avlable data, the next step is to predict where specific weather systems will be 24 hours ahead and what the existing conditions are in certn regions. This involves extrapolation from observed movements over recent hours into future predictions of upcoming weather patterns across different areas.

Satellite Observations: Latest satellite images provide insights on cloud formations compared with previous pictures taken over days, tracking changes that can affect weather systems influencing the region. Radar data and information from minor forecasting tools are also considered for a comprehensive understanding.

Weather forecasts are compiled through a meticulous process involving systematic observation, data analysis using various methodologies like isobaric and streamline analysis, numerical, and satellite imagery, leading to informed predictions of atmospheric conditions that are crucial for planning and decision-making in various sectors.
This article is reproduced from: https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/learning-tools/how-weather-forecast-made

Please indicate when reprinting from: https://www.58es.com/Weather_forecast/Weather_Forecasting_Process_Analysis-2.html

Comprehensive Weather Data Analysis Process Global Atmospheric Information Gathering System Precise Forecasting through Numerical Models Satellite Images for Dynamic Condition Tracking Manual Analysis of Computer Generated Maps Advanced Tools in Modern Weather Prediction